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Weekly Excess Death Rate Analysis

United Kingdom

Data Sources: Office for National Statistics (ONS), NHS vaccination statistics.

November 2023



Data:

The data is based upon weekly deaths data from the UK ONS spanning from 2010 to 2023.

Country: UK

Source for Weekly Deaths (ONS): Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales.

Source for Vaccination data: NHS - COVID-19 vaccinations archive.

Source for Population Estimates (UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) - NOMIS): NOMIS query: National Population projections by single year of age.



Comment:


The dashboard below summarises the analysis of weekly excess mortality for different age groups in the United Kingdom. It allows individuals, researchers and institutions to visualise the data, and make their own conclusions based upon what they view. Users can browse the different age groups. Each interactive chart attempts to capture different aspects of the observed excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic years. All the data is downloadable and the original data sources, as well as methodologies to analyse the data, are provided. We will endeavour to update our servers as new data becomes available.


Complementary Analysis

Go to Yearly Analysis.
Go to Quarterly Analysis.


Weekly Excess Mortality Analysis

In order to estimate weekly excess mortality we perform a 2-step approach to estimate the baseline deaths. The first step is by estimating the trend in death rates using annual data as described in our methodology papers, while using method 2C.

The second step is to estimate weekly excess deaths by comparing deaths or death rates in a given week with the average death rate, which is computed using the average weekly frequency of deaths over a period of N-years (typically 5 to 10 years depending on the data availability). By using both methods in conjunction we obtain a trend adjusted and week of year adjusted estimate for excess mortality.

Our analysis computes both excess death rates and excess deaths, which are obtained by multiplying the excess death rates with population estimates for the given year.

Weekly data provides a granularity that allows us to investigate the impact of immediate vaccination deaths, lockdowns, or other effects, on excess mortality.

Excess Mortality vs Vax.

The following chart shows the analysis of excess mortality for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, for different age groups. The Covid-19 vaccinations data (right hand scale) refers to the total accumulated doses for 2021 and 2022, as a percentage of the respective age group population.

The user can specify the method for estimating excess mortality.

  Weekly excess mortality, from 2020 to 2023.


Excess Mortality Detail


In This section the user can have a more detailed look at weekly excess mortality by analysing each year individually, as well as visualising the individual vaccine dose rollout.
  Weekly Excess Deaths or Death Rate
The chart below shows the cumulative excess deaths (or death rate) for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The sum of all Covid-19 vaccination doses as a percentage of the age group population are also shown. The user can select the age group and either the absolute number excess deaths or excess deaths rates.
The chart below shows the cumulative excess deaths (or death rate) for a selected year. The individual Covid-19 vaccination doses as a percentage of the age group population are also shown. The user can select the age group, year and either the absolute number excess deaths or excess deaths rates.


Excess Mortality for different age groups


The following chart allows the user to compare the trends in excess mortality during 2020,2021, 2022 and 2023, for the different age groups.

This chart is particularly interesting to investigate excess mortality for older versus younger individuals as the pandemic evolved. In most developed countries, Covid-19 vaccination started to be rolled out in early 2021 and accelerated in March 2021. Vaccine penetration rates achieved high penetration in the population in most of these countries (including the UK).

The interactive chart allows the user can specify the year for evaluating the excess deaths.


  Weekly excess mortality for different age groups, by year.


Complementary Analysis

Go to Yearly Analysis.
Go to Quarterly Analysis.